Geopolitical risk, read from the market that prices it
Broad markets move for a thousand reasons. A prediction-market contract prices one question — will this strike happen, will this ceasefire hold. We turn those odds into a daily, theater-by-theater read on geopolitical risk.
Why prediction markets
Most tools count headlines or score sentiment. We read the one place where people put real money behind a specific outcome.
One contract prices one question. No untangling why oil moved.
Real money, real conviction — not sentiment or headline counts.
We track each contract point-over-point and roll them up by theater.
How we read it
Track
We monitor Polymarket's geopolitics universe daily — every contract on conflict, escalation, sanctions, and de-escalation.
Score
Each contract gets a polarity-adjusted risk direction and an honest liquidity read; theaters roll up into a risk pulse — level, breadth, momentum.
Brief
Each day we summarize what moved and why it matters, in plain language — on the site and by email.
Ways to use it
Two products live today, with bespoke work on request.
Markets Board
LiveLive geopolitical-risk contracts, scored daily and grouped by theater.
Daily Briefing
LiveA plain-language read of what the board is saying, in your inbox each day.
Need a custom read?
Event flow forensics, signal-quality audits, and cascade memos for funds, corporates, newsrooms, and compliance teams.
Built by a team with a causal-inference research background — that rigor runs under every label. About us
Frequently asked questions
What is CausalAlpha? +
CausalAlpha is a geopolitical-risk intelligence tool. It reads prediction-market contracts on Polymarket's geopolitics universe and turns their odds into a daily, theater-by-theater read on geopolitical risk, cross-checked against open-source news.
Where does the data come from? +
Risk signals are read from Polymarket prediction-market contracts and cross-checked against a curated set of monitored news channels. Each contract prices one specific question, such as whether a ceasefire will hold.
How often is it updated? +
The markets board and the daily briefing refresh once per market day, after the close, Monday through Friday.
Is this investment advice? +
No. CausalAlpha is a geopolitical-risk monitoring tool, not investment advice, and it does not forecast asset returns. Our own research finds the link from these signals to asset prices is statistically weak at daily frequency.
What is a prediction market? +
A prediction market is a marketplace where people trade contracts that pay out based on whether a specific future event happens. The market price reflects the crowd's probability estimate for that event.
Key terms
- Theater
- A geographic conflict region that contracts are grouped into, such as the Middle East or China–Taiwan.
- Risk pulse
- A per-theater roll-up of where risk sits: its level, breadth, and momentum across that theater's contracts.
- Polarity-adjusted
- Each contract's odds are oriented so a higher number always means more risk, whichever way the question is phrased.
- Liquidity
- How deep and heavily-backed a contract's order book is; thinly-traded contracts are read with more caution.
See the board live
Live geopolitical-risk contracts, scored daily.
Open the markets boardBuilding something, or need a custom read? See how we work.