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Terms of Service

Last updated: March 2026

By using CausalAlpha ("the Service"), you agree to these terms. If you don't agree, please don't use the Service.

1. Service Description

CausalAlpha is a geopolitical-risk intelligence service that tracks prediction-market contracts (Polymarket's geopolitics universe), scores them into per-contract risk signals and per-theater aggregates, and publishes a daily plain-language briefing.

2. Not Investment Advice

The data, analysis, charts, and commentary provided by CausalAlpha are for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. You should not make any financial decisions based solely on the information provided by this service.

3. No Warranty

The Service is provided "as is" without warranties of any kind, either express or implied. We do not guarantee that:

  • The data is accurate, complete, or timely
  • The risk signals or market-implied probabilities will persist in the future
  • The service will be available without interruption
  • The analysis methodology is free from error

4. Limitation of Liability

CausalAlpha and its creators shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages arising from your use of the Service, including but not limited to financial losses from investment decisions.

5. Data Sources

CausalAlpha aggregates publicly available data from prediction markets (Polymarket), public news sources, and market-data providers. We do not claim ownership of the underlying content, which remains subject to the originating providers' terms of use.

6. Acceptable Use

You agree not to:

  • Scrape, crawl, or programmatically access the Service without permission
  • Attempt to interfere with the Service's infrastructure
  • Redistribute the data commercially without written consent

7. Changes to Terms

We may update these terms from time to time. Continued use of the Service after changes constitutes acceptance of the new terms.

8. Contact

Questions about these terms? Get in touch.