From Correlation to Causation
Most geopolitical risk tools measure sentiment. We measure causal structure.
The Problem
Geopolitical risk is the largest unpriced variable in commodity markets. Every day, conflict, sanctions, and political instability move oil, gold, and volatility — but how much? In which direction? With what lag?
Existing tools offer sentiment scores and news aggregation. They tell you what happened. They don't tell you what drives what.
What We Built
CausalAlpha is a geopolitical risk intelligence platform that applies econometric causal inference to real-time news monitoring. We go beyond correlation to discover and quantify directed causal relationships between risk signals and markets.
What Makes This Different
Sentiment Tools
- Measure tone (positive/negative)
- Report correlations
- Aggregate news volume
- Backwards-looking
CausalAlpha
- Measures causal direction
- Discovers DAG structure
- Quantifies shock propagation
- Attributes variance to sources
Disclaimer
CausalAlpha is a research and intelligence tool. The data, analysis, and visualizations provided are for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or commodity.
Past relationships between geopolitical risk signals and market variables do not guarantee future results.