Research

Research & explainers

Plain-language write-ups of our published work on reading geopolitical risk from prediction markets and open-source signals — plus methodology notes and market retrospectives.

Framework 2026-07-10 9 min read

Three Ways a Prediction Market Meets the News — and What Each One Tells You

A covert raid, a surprise strike, and a public collapse. In each one, the betting market and the news lined up differently — and the shape of that gap tells you whether someone was trading on information the public couldn't see. This is the read we sell, in plain language.

Case study 2026-07-09 7 min read

When the News Beat the Market: The Case That Proves the Rest

In December 2024, the Assad regime collapsed in eleven days and took the world by surprise. The betting market held 'Assad stays' at 90% while the news was already screaming the opposite. That's not a failure — it's the control case that makes the whole framework click.

Case study 2026-07-08 8 min read

The Market That Missed It: What the Iran Strike Reveals About Hidden Information

On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel hit Iran in a surprise 900-strike campaign. The betting market didn't see it coming — right before the strike, the odds were falling. So why is this still a story about information the public couldn't read? Here is what the data shows, in plain language.

Case study 2026-07-01 8 min read

Someone Knew: How Prediction Markets Priced the Maduro Raid Before the News Broke

On January 3, 2026, US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in a secret raid. On a public betting site, you could watch the event being priced for a full month — while the news stayed silent. Here is what the data shows, in plain language.

Paper explainer 2026-06-24 9 min read

A Real-Time Geopolitical Risk Index, in Plain Language

We built a geopolitical-risk index from Telegram in real time, then asked which way the causal arrows actually point. Two answers were honest about their own limits — and one of them is why we don't sell price predictions.