Custom reads on the markets that price geopolitical risk
When a desk, a risk team, a newsroom, or a compliance function needs more than the daily board — a specific event pulled apart, an exposure mapped, a price stress-tested — we do that work by hand.
When people come to us
Different questions, one common thread — a prediction market has priced something, and you need to know how much to trust it and what it means.
A desk sizing an event
"A contract just repriced hard. Is that a few informed hands or a broad crowd — and what tends to move next?"
A risk or treasury team
"We're exposed to a region or a commodity. What is the market actually pricing on our exposure, and how fragile is that read?"
A newsroom
"There's a suspicious-looking run of trades around an event. Can you take the on-chain tape apart — rigorously, without the overreach?"
A compliance or legal function
"We need an independent, defensible read on whether a market's price was thin, concentrated, or cheap to move."
What we do
Five kinds of engagement. Every one is built on public data and traces to a verifiable source.
Event Flow Forensics
Our signatureWe take a single event — a strike, a raid, a collapse — and pull it apart across four independent layers: did the market lead the news, was the positioning concentrated, early, and cheap, did the money land on the specific outcome that actually happened, and how did related assets react. The result is a sourced read on how far a price ran ahead of the story and how trustworthy that move was.
See the method in action: our published case studies on the Maduro raid and the Iran strike.
Signal-Quality Audit
Is a specific contract's price trustworthy, or thin, concentrated, and cheap to move? A defensible read for anyone citing or trading that market.
Event-Cascade Memo
If a market reprices, what moves next, in what order, and how much of the reaction is real — each asset measured against its own history, not a gut call.
Custom Watchlist & Monitoring
A named theater, commodity, or company set tracked daily — with alerts on solid-book repricings, thin-book spikes, broad theater moves, and prices running ahead of the news.
Briefings & Retainer
A written or live briefing for an investment committee, board, or editorial desk — or a monthly analyst retainer for standing coverage of what you care about.
Why us
Plenty of tools now flag "suspicious" trades. Most of them cry wolf. Our work holds up because of how carefully it's done.
Four independent layers — price, flow, specificity, asset reaction — that agree before we say anything. One layer is a lead, not a finding.
Our background is in causal inference and econometrics. That discipline runs under every read — and shows in the caveats we put in writing.
We describe patterns — unusual, concentrated, fragile — and never label a person or a wallet an "insider." We measure prices; we don't accuse people.
How it works
Tell us the question
An event, an exposure, a price you need stress-tested. A sentence is enough to start.
We scope and quote
We come back with what we can credibly answer, the shape of the deliverable, and a fixed price or retainer — before any work starts.
You get a defensible read
A sourced deliverable you can act on or cite — with every figure traceable and every limit stated.
How engagements are priced
Most work is either a one-off scoped deliverable — a memo or a forensic study — or an ongoing monthly retainer for standing monitoring and briefings. Every engagement is scoped and quoted up front. There's no rate card, because no two questions are the same; the quote depends on the depth of data work and the turnaround you need.
Who we work with
Funds & trading desks
Macro, event-driven, and commodity teams sizing a repricing or an exposure.
Corporates & insurers
Risk, treasury, and supply-chain functions with real-world geopolitical exposure.
Newsrooms
Reporters who need a rigorous, citable read on prediction-market activity.
Compliance & policy
Legal, compliance, and policy teams that need an independent, defensible analysis.
What we don't do
- Not investment advice. We don't tell you what to trade and we don't forecast where prices go. We measure how a market is behaving.
- Descriptive, not accusatory. We describe patterns — unusual, concentrated, fragile — and never label a person or a wallet an "insider" absent a filed legal case.
- Judgment, not identities. We work from public, pseudonymous on-chain data. Unmasking traders is a job for funding traces and legal process — not for us.
Have a question in mind?
Tell us the event, the exposure, or the market you're looking at. We'll tell you what we can credibly answer — and what we can't.
Start a conversationGeneral questions or feedback instead? Contact us.