CausalAlpha Daily Geopolitical Risk Brief — 2026-07-13
The Read
The overall risk backdrop this week: how high geopolitical risk sits across the markets we track, and which way it's leaning. The day's specific moves come next.
Middle East risk is moderate and climbing this week, across many contracts (up 12 points from last week), the only region with enough scored markets to read this week. Several Middle East de-escalation contracts saw their odds fall today — the market is pricing a little less confidence that those calmer outcomes hold.
The Moves That Mattered
The contracts whose odds shifted most since yesterday, on the markets with real money behind them — the day's biggest changes in what traders expect.
Middle East — "Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?" — the biggest move today. The odds rose from 16% to 31% since yesterday. The market now sees more risk here. At 31%, it's a live but below-even chance. This market also moved in yesterday's brief. As a real-world backdrop, U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on June 17, 2026, establishing a 60-day ceasefire and a negotiation framework [1]. However, on July 13, 2026, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei announced that Iran would no longer comply with the MOU, accusing the United States of openly violating its commitments [4].
Middle East — "Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?" — unusual activity. The odds rose from 18% to 30% since yesterday. The market now sees more risk here. At 30%, it's a live but below-even chance. This was a large move on a thin book — it could be information or just noise. This move comes amid the same June 17 MOU framework [1], which Tehran accused the U.S. of breaching after the United States revoked a license allowing Iran to sell oil on July 7, 2026 [2].
Middle East — "Iran full airspace closure by July 31?" — unusual activity. The odds rose from 27% to 34% since yesterday. The market now sees more risk here. At 34%, it's a live but below-even chance. This was a large move on a thin book — it could be information or just noise.
Middle East — "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" — a notable move. The odds fell from 62% to 57% since yesterday. The market now sees more risk here. At 57%, it's near a coin-flip. It traded on a deep, heavily-backed book. This market also moved in yesterday's brief. In the background, President Trump announced on social media on July 13, 2026, that the U.S. was reinstating its naval blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and would begin charging a 20% toll on eligible cargo ships transiting the waterway [3].
Middle East — "Israel closes its airspace by July 31?" — a notable move. The odds rose from 14% to 18% since yesterday. The market now sees more risk here. At 18%, it's still a long shot.
A Closer Look
A close-up on one notable repricing from the past few days: how believable the move was, and whether the oil, gold, or stock markets we track for that region moved alongside it.
Middle East — "Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?" We're focusing on this move because it's traded heavily enough to matter and is far enough back to see whether the markets we track moved alongside it. An update — this market has moved again since we last looked at it. Its odds rose from 24% to 38% around July 12. This market trades at a moderate size — a real move, but worth a bit less weight. The repricing didn't carry into linked markets — no tracked asset moved unusually afterward. Posts about this in our curated Telegram channels picked up about 4 days BEFORE the market moved. This is a side-by-side look at what happened around the move, not an explanation of why it happened.
What to Watch
Contracts resolving soonest — the near-term questions whose outcomes could shift risk next.
- "Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?" resolves in 18 days — currently 31%.
- "Iran full airspace closure by July 31?" resolves in 18 days — currently 34%.
- "Israel closes its airspace by July 31?" resolves in 18 days — currently 18%.
Sources & Caveats
This brief reads Polymarket prediction-market contracts and cross-checks them against 9 monitored news channels — Faytuks_Network, KyivIndependent_official, MiddleEastEye_TG, OSINTdefender, aljazeeraglobal, manniefabian, noel_reports, the_jerusalem_post, wartranslated (all healthy this week).
Web sources
CausalAlpha is a geopolitical-risk monitoring tool. It reads prediction markets (geopolitical contracts on Polymarket) and cross-checks them against open-source news coverage. It is not investment advice and does not forecast market returns — CausalAlpha's own research finds the link from these signals to asset prices is statistically weak at daily frequency. Data may be incomplete.