CausalAlpha · Market Radar
Prediction Markets
What the world is betting on across geopolitical risk.
Latest market refresh
2026-07-28 22:02 UTC
At a glance
overall · all questions matching your filters (not just this tab)Questions tracked
0
across 0 regions
Getting riskier
↑ 0
questions pricing more risk →
Calming down
↓ 0
questions pricing less risk →
Biggest mover
—
Where risk is moving
a quick read on each regionRisk here is low, easing broadly — 3 of 4 questions pricing less risk.
0 rising · 1 steady · 3 calming
Details
One-off — driven by US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
more elevated than 0% of recent days · +262% volume
Quiet this week.
0 rising · 1 steady · 0 calming
Details
No notable moves
Quiet this week.
0 rising · 1 steady · 0 calming
Details
No notable moves
Each region shows whether risk is rising or calming across its questions; the level chip (when shown) is the volume-weighted share of risk priced now. Deterministic, from Polymarket; not investment advice.
Biggest movers
No contracts match this view/filter.
Chance = the market's implied probability of the event. Risk = whether the recent move implies more (↑, red) or less (↓, green) geopolitical risk — shown only where a question maps cleanly to escalation/de-escalation. Thinly traded = little money resting near the price relative to how much it trades, so it's easy to move. Unusual flags a large one-way move into a thin book — could be early information or just noise, not an accusation. Data from Polymarket; not investment advice.