CausalAlpha · Market Radar
Prediction Markets
What the world is betting on across geopolitical risk.
Latest market refresh
2026-10-25 22:01 UTC
At a glance
overall · all questions matching your filtersQuestions tracked
2
across 1 region
Getting riskier
↑ 1
questions pricing more risk →
Calming down
↓ 0
questions pricing less risk →
Biggest mover
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
▲ +2.3 pts · risk ↑
Where risk is moving
a quick read on each regionNudged up mainly by one question (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?).
1 rising · 1 steady · 0 calming
Details
One-off — driven by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Quiet this week.
0 rising · 2 steady · 0 calming
Details
No notable moves
Quiet this week.
0 rising · 1 steady · 0 calming
Details
No notable moves
Each region shows whether risk is rising or calming across its questions; the level chip (when shown) is the volume-weighted share of risk priced now. Deterministic, from Polymarket; not investment advice.
All questions
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
20%
chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
12%
chance
Chance = the market's implied probability of the event. Risk = whether the recent move implies more (↑, red) or less (↓, green) geopolitical risk — shown only where a question maps cleanly to escalation/de-escalation. Thinly traded = little money resting near the price relative to how much it trades, so it's easy to move. Unusual flags a large one-way move into a thin book — could be early information or just noise, not an accusation. Data from Polymarket; not investment advice.