CausalAlpha · Market Radar
Prediction Markets
What the world is betting on across geopolitical risk.
Latest market refresh
2026-07-27 22:01 UTC
At a glance
overall · all questions matching your filters (not just this tab)Questions tracked
1
across 1 region
Getting riskier
↑ 1
questions pricing more risk →
Calming down
↓ 0
questions pricing less risk →
Biggest mover
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
▲ +23.0 pts · risk ↑
Where risk is moving
a quick read on each regionRisk here is mixed, easing broadly — 3 of 4 questions pricing less risk.
0 rising · 1 steady · 3 calming
Details
Broad — 6 of 11 contracts pricing less risk
more elevated than 27% of recent days · +9% volume
Nudged up mainly by one question (Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by Septem…).
1 rising · 0 steady · 0 calming
Details
One-off — driven by Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
Quiet this week.
0 rising · 1 steady · 0 calming
Details
No notable moves
Quiet this week.
0 rising · 1 steady · 0 calming
Details
No notable moves
Each region shows whether risk is rising or calming across its questions; the level chip (when shown) is the volume-weighted share of risk priced now. Deterministic, from Polymarket; not investment advice.
No contracts match this view/filter.
Chance = the market's implied probability of the event. Risk = whether the recent move implies more (↑, red) or less (↓, green) geopolitical risk — shown only where a question maps cleanly to escalation/de-escalation. Thinly traded = little money resting near the price relative to how much it trades, so it's easy to move. Unusual flags a large one-way move into a thin book — could be early information or just noise, not an accusation. Data from Polymarket; not investment advice.